National Economy (4Q 2025 Initial Estimate)
Real gross domestic product (“GDP”) increased at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased by 4.4%.
The advance report for the fourth quarter of 2025, originally scheduled for January 29, 2026, was rescheduled due to the October–November 2025 government shutdown.
The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected downturns in government spending and exports and a deceleration in consumer spending that were partly offset by an acceleration in investment. The decrease in imports was smaller than in the prior quarter.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.4% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9% in the third quarter.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.7% in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4% in the third quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (“PCE”) price index increased 2.9%, compared with an increase of 2.8%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.7%, compared with an increase of 2.9%.
Real GDP increased 2.2% in 2025 (from the 2024 annual level to the 2025 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.8% in 2024. The increase in real GDP in 2025 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6% in 2025, compared with an increase of 2.4% in 2024. The PCE price index increased 2.6%, the same increase as in 2024. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.8%, compared with an increase of 2.9%.
